[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1324},["ShallowReactive",2],{"doc-getting-started/your-first-opportunity":3},{"id":4,"title":5,"appLink":6,"body":7,"category":1307,"description":1308,"extension":1309,"level":1310,"meta":1311,"navigation":773,"next":1312,"path":1313,"related":1314,"seo":1317,"stem":1318,"tags":1319,"__hash__":1323,"_path":1313},"docs/docs/getting-started/your-first-opportunity.md","Your First Opportunity Analysis","/opportunities-dashboard",{"type":8,"value":9,"toc":1254},"minimark",[10,14,25,30,33,49,52,56,61,68,72,75,102,106,112,115,120,137,141,144,148,153,179,185,188,192,196,199,203,206,211,214,219,222,226,229,243,249,253,260,264,268,279,284,298,304,308,312,318,322,333,338,342,346,352,356,367,372,376,379,387,393,396,400,406,411,417,421,427,431,435,441,446,452,458,464,468,471,476,481,486,491,496,501,507,511,517,523,529,534,538,541,545,550,556,562,568,573,577,582,588,594,600,606,611,615,618,622,625,630,644,650,656,660,663,668,673,677,680,691,696,701,705,708,728,732,735,873,876,880,885,899,905,910,921,926,931,942,947,951,954,959,970,975,986,991,1002,1008,1012,1015,1019,1026,1037,1041,1044,1055,1059,1062,1073,1079,1083,1087,1093,1099,1105,1109,1114,1119,1124,1128,1133,1138,1143,1147,1152,1157,1162,1166,1171,1176,1181,1185,1188,1208,1211,1215,1218,1230,1240,1250],[11,12,5],"h1",{"id":13},"your-first-opportunity-analysis",[15,16,17],"blockquote",{},[18,19,20,24],"p",{},[21,22,23],"strong",{},"Educational Resource:"," This guide explains how to interpret features in Profitelligence. Past performance does not guarantee future results.",[26,27,29],"h2",{"id":28},"what-well-do","What We'll Do",[18,31,32],{},"This guide walks you through analyzing one opportunity from start to finish. You'll learn:",[34,35,36,40,43,46],"ol",{},[37,38,39],"li",{},"How to pick an opportunity worth investigating",[37,41,42],{},"What to look at in the detail panel",[37,44,45],{},"How to evaluate driver quality",[37,47,48],{},"How to decide if it's worth acting on",[18,50,51],{},"By the end, you'll have a systematic approach to evaluating any opportunity.",[26,53,55],{"id":54},"step-1-choose-an-opportunity","Step 1: Choose an Opportunity",[57,58,60],"h3",{"id":59},"navigate-to-the-dashboard","Navigate to the Dashboard",[18,62,63,64,67],{},"Go to ",[21,65,66],{},"Opportunities Dashboard"," from the main navigation.",[57,69,71],{"id":70},"apply-mental-filters","Apply Mental Filters",[18,73,74],{},"For your first analysis, look for:",[76,77,78,84,90,96],"ul",{},[37,79,80,83],{},[21,81,82],{},"Overall Score ≥75"," (strong pattern)",[37,85,86,89],{},[21,87,88],{},"Confidence ≥65"," (well-tested)",[37,91,92,95],{},[21,93,94],{},"Clear direction"," (Bullish or Bearish, not Neutral)",[37,97,98,101],{},[21,99,100],{},"Familiar sector"," (easier to evaluate if you know the industry)",[57,103,105],{"id":104},"pick-one","Pick One",[18,107,108,111],{},[21,109,110],{},"Click on any row"," that meets these criteria.",[18,113,114],{},"For this walkthrough, we'll use a hypothetical example:",[18,116,117],{},[21,118,119],{},"NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation)",[76,121,122,125,128,131,134],{},[37,123,124],{},"Overall Score: 82",[37,126,127],{},"Confidence: 76",[37,129,130],{},"Direction: Bullish",[37,132,133],{},"Sector: Technology",[37,135,136],{},"Top Strategy: Insider Buying",[26,138,140],{"id":139},"step-2-read-the-header","Step 2: Read the Header",[18,142,143],{},"The detail panel opens on the right. Start at the top.",[57,145,147],{"id":146},"company-information","Company Information",[18,149,150],{},[21,151,152],{},"What you see:",[76,154,155,161,167,173],{},[37,156,157,160],{},[21,158,159],{},"NVDA"," (ticker)",[37,162,163,166],{},[21,164,165],{},"NVIDIA Corporation"," (full name)",[37,168,169,172],{},[21,170,171],{},"Technology"," (sector)",[37,174,175,178],{},[21,176,177],{},"Semiconductors"," (industry)",[18,180,181,184],{},[21,182,183],{},"What to think:"," \"Do I understand this business? Is this a sector I follow?\"",[18,186,187],{},"If the answer is no, consider choosing a different opportunity. Trade what you know.",[57,189,191],{"id":190},"overall-metrics","Overall Metrics",[18,193,194],{},[21,195,124],{},[18,197,198],{},"Translation: Very strong historical pattern. This is above our \"high quality\" threshold of 70.",[18,200,201],{},[21,202,127],{},[18,204,205],{},"Translation: Well-tested pattern with 100+ historical examples. High reliability.",[18,207,208],{},[21,209,210],{},"Direction: BULLISH",[18,212,213],{},"Translation: Historical patterns suggest upward price movement correlation.",[18,215,216],{},[21,217,218],{},"Last Updated: 2 hours ago",[18,220,221],{},"Translation: Reasonably fresh data. If this said \"2 days ago,\" you'd want to refresh.",[57,223,225],{"id":224},"initial-evaluation","Initial Evaluation",[18,227,228],{},"At this point, you know:",[76,230,231,234,237,240],{},[37,232,233],{},"✅ Strong score (82)",[37,235,236],{},"✅ High confidence (76)",[37,238,239],{},"✅ Clear direction (Bullish)",[37,241,242],{},"✅ Recent data (2 hours old)",[18,244,245,248],{},[21,246,247],{},"Decision:"," Worth investigating further. Proceed to drivers.",[26,250,252],{"id":251},"step-3-analyze-the-top-strategies","Step 3: Analyze the Top Strategies",[18,254,255,256,259],{},"Scroll down to the ",[21,257,258],{},"Top Strategies"," section. You'll see up to 5 strategies ranked by contribution.",[57,261,263],{"id":262},"strategy-1-insider-buying","Strategy #1: Insider Buying",[18,265,266],{},[21,267,152],{},[269,270,275],"pre",{"className":271,"code":273,"language":274},[272],"language-text","Insider Buying\nDirection: Bullish\nContribution: 32%\nSignal Strength: Very Strong\n","text",[276,277,273],"code",{"__ignoreMap":278},"",[18,280,281],{},[21,282,283],{},"What this means:",[76,285,286,289,292,295],{},[37,287,288],{},"This single pattern contributes 32% of the total 82-point score",[37,290,291],{},"It's the primary driver of this opportunity",[37,293,294],{},"Signal strength is \"Very Strong\" (likely r ≥ 0.7)",[37,296,297],{},"Direction aligns with overall direction (Bullish)",[18,299,300,303],{},[21,301,302],{},"Your thought process:"," \"Insiders have been buying. That's a strong bullish signal - they know something I don't.\"",[57,305,307],{"id":306},"strategy-2-momentum-bullish","Strategy #2: Momentum Bullish",[18,309,310],{},[21,311,152],{},[269,313,316],{"className":314,"code":315,"language":274},[272],"Momentum Bullish\nDirection: Bullish\nContribution: 24%\nSignal Strength: Strong\n",[276,317,315],{"__ignoreMap":278},[18,319,320],{},[21,321,283],{},[76,323,324,327,330],{},[37,325,326],{},"Technical momentum indicators are positive",[37,328,329],{},"Contributes 24% to overall score",[37,331,332],{},"Also bullish (consistent with Strategy #1)",[18,334,335,337],{},[21,336,302],{}," \"Insiders are buying AND momentum is positive. Two independent signals confirming.\"",[57,339,341],{"id":340},"strategy-3-valuation-gap","Strategy #3: Valuation Gap",[18,343,344],{},[21,345,152],{},[269,347,350],{"className":348,"code":349,"language":274},[272],"Valuation Gap\nDirection: Bullish\nContribution: 18%\nSignal Strength: Moderate\n",[276,351,349],{"__ignoreMap":278},[18,353,354],{},[21,355,283],{},[76,357,358,361,364],{},[37,359,360],{},"Stock appears undervalued relative to historical norms",[37,362,363],{},"Contributes 18% to score",[37,365,366],{},"Moderate signal strength (maybe r = 0.4-0.6)",[18,368,369,371],{},[21,370,302],{}," \"Stock might be cheap here. Insiders agree. Momentum agrees. Three different reasons to be bullish.\"",[57,373,375],{"id":374},"strategy-4-5","Strategy #4 & #5",[18,377,378],{},"Let's say the remaining strategies show:",[76,380,381,384],{},[37,382,383],{},"Strategy #4: Price Reversion (12%, Bullish, Moderate)",[37,385,386],{},"Strategy #5: Sector Rotation (8%, Bullish, Weak)",[18,388,389,392],{},[21,390,391],{},"Total contribution:"," 32% + 24% + 18% + 12% + 8% = 94%",[18,394,395],{},"The remaining 6% comes from minor factors below the top 5.",[57,397,399],{"id":398},"pattern-alignment-check","Pattern Alignment Check",[18,401,402,405],{},[21,403,404],{},"Critical observation:"," ALL strategies are bullish. No conflicting signals.",[18,407,408,410],{},[21,409,283],{}," High conviction setup. When all drivers agree, the pattern is more reliable.",[18,412,413,416],{},[21,414,415],{},"Red flag to watch for:"," If you saw 3 bullish and 2 bearish drivers, that's mixed signals. Lower conviction.",[26,418,420],{"id":419},"step-4-examine-the-statistical-details","Step 4: Examine the Statistical Details",[18,422,423,424,426],{},"Click on ",[21,425,263],{}," to see full details.",[57,428,430],{"id":429},"the-statistical-breakdown","The Statistical Breakdown",[18,432,433],{},[21,434,152],{},[269,436,439],{"className":437,"code":438,"language":274},[272],"insider_buying_20d → forward_return_30d\nr = 0.74\nn = 156\np \u003C 0.01\n",[276,440,438],{"__ignoreMap":278},[18,442,443],{},[21,444,445],{},"Translation:",[18,447,448,451],{},[21,449,450],{},"r = 0.74"," → Very strong correlation. When insiders bought in the past, the stock rose 30 days later in 74% of cases.",[18,453,454,457],{},[21,455,456],{},"n = 156"," → We've tested this pattern 156 times. Large sample size = high reliability.",[18,459,460,463],{},[21,461,462],{},"p \u003C 0.01"," → Less than 1% chance this correlation is random luck. Statistically significant.",[57,465,467],{"id":466},"quality-check","Quality Check",[18,469,470],{},"Ask yourself three questions:",[18,472,473],{},[21,474,475],{},"1. Is the correlation strong enough?",[76,477,478],{},[37,479,480],{},"r = 0.74 → Yes, \"Very Strong\" range (≥0.7)",[18,482,483],{},[21,484,485],{},"2. Is the sample size large enough?",[76,487,488],{},[37,489,490],{},"n = 156 → Yes, well above our minimum of 30",[18,492,493],{},[21,494,495],{},"3. Is it statistically significant?",[76,497,498],{},[37,499,500],{},"p \u003C 0.01 → Yes, highly significant (threshold is p \u003C 0.05)",[18,502,503,506],{},[21,504,505],{},"Conclusion:"," This is a high-quality driver. Trust it.",[57,508,510],{"id":509},"time-horizon","Time Horizon",[18,512,513,514],{},"Notice: ",[276,515,516],{},"forward_return_30d",[18,518,519,522],{},[21,520,521],{},"What this tells you:"," The pattern looks at 30-day forward returns.",[18,524,525,528],{},[21,526,527],{},"Trading implication:"," This is a swing trade setup (3-6 week hold), not a day trade.",[18,530,531,533],{},[21,532,302],{}," \"If I enter this position, I should plan to hold for at least a month. The pattern isn't validated for shorter timeframes.\"",[26,535,537],{"id":536},"step-5-validate-the-logic","Step 5: Validate the Logic",[18,539,540],{},"Numbers look good. But does it make sense?",[57,542,544],{"id":543},"ask-why-would-this-work","Ask: Why Would This Work?",[18,546,547],{},[21,548,549],{},"Insider Buying Pattern:",[18,551,552,555],{},[21,553,554],{},"The thesis:"," Company insiders have non-public information. When they buy with their own money, they believe the stock is undervalued or good news is coming.",[18,557,558,561],{},[21,559,560],{},"Does it make sense?"," Yes. Insiders aren't gamblers - they're informed buyers.",[18,563,564,567],{},[21,565,566],{},"Historical edge:"," Research confirms insider buying predicts positive returns.",[18,569,570,572],{},[21,571,505],{}," Logical pattern. Not just a statistical fluke.",[57,574,576],{"id":575},"ask-what-could-go-wrong","Ask: What Could Go Wrong?",[18,578,579],{},[21,580,581],{},"Risks to consider:",[18,583,584,587],{},[21,585,586],{},"Market risk"," → Even with strong patterns, broad market selloffs can override individual signals",[18,589,590,593],{},[21,591,592],{},"Sector risk"," → If the semiconductor sector crashes, NVDA goes down regardless of insider buying",[18,595,596,599],{},[21,597,598],{},"Company risk"," → Unexpected negative news (product recall, legal issues, etc.)",[18,601,602,605],{},[21,603,604],{},"Pattern breakdown"," → Historical correlations can stop working",[18,607,608,610],{},[21,609,302],{}," \"This looks strong, but I need to size my position appropriately for these risks.\"",[26,612,614],{"id":613},"step-6-cross-reference-external-data","Step 6: Cross-Reference External Data",[18,616,617],{},"Profitelligence gives you the statistical edge. But verify with other sources.",[57,619,621],{"id":620},"check-price-action","Check Price Action",[18,623,624],{},"Pull up a chart (TradingView, Yahoo Finance, your broker).",[18,626,627],{},[21,628,629],{},"Look for:",[76,631,632,635,638,641],{},[37,633,634],{},"Current price vs 52-week high/low",[37,636,637],{},"Support/resistance levels",[37,639,640],{},"Volume patterns",[37,642,643],{},"Recent price momentum",[18,645,646,649],{},[21,647,648],{},"What you want:"," Confirmation that price action makes sense with the bullish signal.",[18,651,652,655],{},[21,653,654],{},"Red flag:"," If price just rallied 50% in 2 weeks, you might be late to the party.",[57,657,659],{"id":658},"check-recent-news","Check Recent News",[18,661,662],{},"Search: \"NVDA news\" to see if there's been major announcements.",[18,664,665,667],{},[21,666,648],{}," No major negative catalysts. Positive news is a bonus.",[18,669,670,672],{},[21,671,654],{}," Recent guidance cut, CEO departure, lawsuit, etc.",[57,674,676],{"id":675},"verify-the-insider-trades","Verify the Insider Trades",[18,678,679],{},"If the primary driver is insider buying, verify it's real:",[76,681,682,685,688],{},[37,683,684],{},"Go to SEC EDGAR",[37,686,687],{},"Search for NVDA Form 4 filings",[37,689,690],{},"Confirm insiders actually bought recently",[18,692,693,695],{},[21,694,648],{}," Multiple insiders buying, meaningful amounts ($100K+), in the past 20 days.",[18,697,698,700],{},[21,699,654],{}," One small insider purchase 19 days ago. Weak signal.",[26,702,704],{"id":703},"step-7-make-your-decision","Step 7: Make Your Decision",[18,706,707],{},"You now have:",[76,709,710,713,716,719,722,725],{},[37,711,712],{},"✅ Strong score (82) with high confidence (76)",[37,714,715],{},"✅ Multiple confirming drivers (all bullish)",[37,717,718],{},"✅ High-quality statistics (r=0.74, n=156)",[37,720,721],{},"✅ Logical pattern (insider edge)",[37,723,724],{},"✅ 30-day timeframe (swing trade)",[37,726,727],{},"✅ External verification (confirm on your own)",[57,729,731],{"id":730},"visual-decision-framework","Visual: Decision Framework",[18,733,734],{},"Use this flowchart to systematically evaluate every opportunity:",[269,736,740],{"className":737,"code":738,"language":739,"meta":278,"style":278},"language-mermaid shiki shiki-themes material-theme-lighter material-theme material-theme-palenight","graph TD\n    Start[Start Analysis] --> CheckMetrics{Check Overall\u003Cbr/>Metrics}\n    CheckMetrics -->|Score ≥ 70\u003Cbr/>Confidence ≥ 60| CheckDrivers{All Drivers\u003Cbr/>Aligned?}\n    CheckMetrics -->|Low Score or\u003Cbr/>Low Confidence| Skip[Skip Opportunity]\n\n    CheckDrivers -->|Yes - All Bullish\u003Cbr/>or All Bearish| CheckStats{Strong Stats?\u003Cbr/>r ≥ 0.6, n ≥ 100}\n    CheckDrivers -->|Mixed Signals| ModerateConv[Moderate Conviction\u003Cbr/>Watch & Wait]\n\n    CheckStats -->|Yes| CheckLogic{Makes Logical\u003Cbr/>Sense?}\n    CheckStats -->|No| ModerateConv\n\n    CheckLogic -->|Yes + External\u003Cbr/>Confirmation| HighConv[🌟 HIGH CONVICTION\u003Cbr/>Add to Watchlist\u003Cbr/>Plan Position Size]\n    CheckLogic -->|Logical but\u003Cbr/>Unconfirmed| ModerateConv\n    CheckLogic -->|Doesn't Make\u003Cbr/>Sense| LowConv[⚠️ LOW CONVICTION\u003Cbr/>Skip or Paper Trade]\n\n    ModerateConv --> Wait[Wait for Additional\u003Cbr/>Confirmation]\n\n    style Start fill:#e3f2fd\n    style HighConv fill:#c8e6c9\n    style ModerateConv fill:#fff9c4\n    style LowConv fill:#ffccbc\n    style Skip fill:#f5f5f5\n","mermaid",[276,741,742,750,756,762,768,775,781,787,792,798,804,809,815,821,827,832,838,843,849,855,861,867],{"__ignoreMap":278},[743,744,747],"span",{"class":745,"line":746},"line",1,[743,748,749],{},"graph TD\n",[743,751,753],{"class":745,"line":752},2,[743,754,755],{},"    Start[Start Analysis] --> CheckMetrics{Check Overall\u003Cbr/>Metrics}\n",[743,757,759],{"class":745,"line":758},3,[743,760,761],{},"    CheckMetrics -->|Score ≥ 70\u003Cbr/>Confidence ≥ 60| CheckDrivers{All Drivers\u003Cbr/>Aligned?}\n",[743,763,765],{"class":745,"line":764},4,[743,766,767],{},"    CheckMetrics -->|Low Score or\u003Cbr/>Low Confidence| Skip[Skip Opportunity]\n",[743,769,771],{"class":745,"line":770},5,[743,772,774],{"emptyLinePlaceholder":773},true,"\n",[743,776,778],{"class":745,"line":777},6,[743,779,780],{},"    CheckDrivers -->|Yes - All Bullish\u003Cbr/>or All Bearish| CheckStats{Strong Stats?\u003Cbr/>r ≥ 0.6, n ≥ 100}\n",[743,782,784],{"class":745,"line":783},7,[743,785,786],{},"    CheckDrivers -->|Mixed Signals| ModerateConv[Moderate Conviction\u003Cbr/>Watch & Wait]\n",[743,788,790],{"class":745,"line":789},8,[743,791,774],{"emptyLinePlaceholder":773},[743,793,795],{"class":745,"line":794},9,[743,796,797],{},"    CheckStats -->|Yes| CheckLogic{Makes Logical\u003Cbr/>Sense?}\n",[743,799,801],{"class":745,"line":800},10,[743,802,803],{},"    CheckStats -->|No| ModerateConv\n",[743,805,807],{"class":745,"line":806},11,[743,808,774],{"emptyLinePlaceholder":773},[743,810,812],{"class":745,"line":811},12,[743,813,814],{},"    CheckLogic -->|Yes + External\u003Cbr/>Confirmation| HighConv[🌟 HIGH CONVICTION\u003Cbr/>Add to Watchlist\u003Cbr/>Plan Position Size]\n",[743,816,818],{"class":745,"line":817},13,[743,819,820],{},"    CheckLogic -->|Logical but\u003Cbr/>Unconfirmed| ModerateConv\n",[743,822,824],{"class":745,"line":823},14,[743,825,826],{},"    CheckLogic -->|Doesn't Make\u003Cbr/>Sense| LowConv[⚠️ LOW CONVICTION\u003Cbr/>Skip or Paper Trade]\n",[743,828,830],{"class":745,"line":829},15,[743,831,774],{"emptyLinePlaceholder":773},[743,833,835],{"class":745,"line":834},16,[743,836,837],{},"    ModerateConv --> Wait[Wait for Additional\u003Cbr/>Confirmation]\n",[743,839,841],{"class":745,"line":840},17,[743,842,774],{"emptyLinePlaceholder":773},[743,844,846],{"class":745,"line":845},18,[743,847,848],{},"    style Start fill:#e3f2fd\n",[743,850,852],{"class":745,"line":851},19,[743,853,854],{},"    style HighConv fill:#c8e6c9\n",[743,856,858],{"class":745,"line":857},20,[743,859,860],{},"    style ModerateConv fill:#fff9c4\n",[743,862,864],{"class":745,"line":863},21,[743,865,866],{},"    style LowConv fill:#ffccbc\n",[743,868,870],{"class":745,"line":869},22,[743,871,872],{},"    style Skip fill:#f5f5f5\n",[18,874,875],{},"This process should take 5-10 minutes per opportunity. Don't rush it - systematic analysis beats gut feelings.",[57,877,879],{"id":878},"decision-framework","Decision Framework",[18,881,882],{},[21,883,884],{},"HIGH CONVICTION SETUP:",[76,886,887,890,893,896],{},[37,888,889],{},"All drivers bullish",[37,891,892],{},"Strong statistics",[37,894,895],{},"Makes logical sense",[37,897,898],{},"Confirmed externally",[18,900,901,904],{},[21,902,903],{},"→ Action:"," Add to watchlist. Consider position sizing for entry.",[18,906,907],{},[21,908,909],{},"MODERATE CONVICTION:",[76,911,912,915,918],{},[37,913,914],{},"Some conflicting drivers",[37,916,917],{},"Decent statistics but not exceptional",[37,919,920],{},"Makes sense but not slam dunk",[18,922,923,925],{},[21,924,903],{}," Watch closely. Wait for additional confirmation.",[18,927,928],{},[21,929,930],{},"LOW CONVICTION:",[76,932,933,936,939],{},[37,934,935],{},"Mixed or weak signals",[37,937,938],{},"Poor statistics (low r, low n)",[37,940,941],{},"Doesn't make logical sense",[18,943,944,946],{},[21,945,903],{}," Skip. Don't force it.",[57,948,950],{"id":949},"position-sizing","Position Sizing",[18,952,953],{},"Even with high conviction, risk management matters.",[18,955,956],{},[21,957,958],{},"Conservative approach:",[76,960,961,964,967],{},[37,962,963],{},"1-2% of portfolio",[37,965,966],{},"Tight stop loss (5-7%)",[37,968,969],{},"Take partial profits at 10%",[18,971,972],{},[21,973,974],{},"Moderate approach:",[76,976,977,980,983],{},[37,978,979],{},"3-5% of portfolio",[37,981,982],{},"Standard stop (10%)",[37,984,985],{},"Hold for full 30-day pattern timeframe",[18,987,988],{},[21,989,990],{},"Aggressive approach:",[76,992,993,996,999],{},[37,994,995],{},"5-10% of portfolio",[37,997,998],{},"Wider stop (15%)",[37,1000,1001],{},"Add on strength",[18,1003,1004,1007],{},[21,1005,1006],{},"Key principle:"," Higher conviction = larger position, but never risk more than you can afford to lose.",[26,1009,1011],{"id":1010},"step-8-monitor-and-learn","Step 8: Monitor and Learn",[18,1013,1014],{},"You've made your decision. Now track the results.",[57,1016,1018],{"id":1017},"set-an-alert","Set an Alert",[18,1020,1021,1022,1025],{},"Navigate to ",[21,1023,1024],{},"Alert Manager"," and create an alert for NVDA:",[76,1027,1028,1031,1034],{},[37,1029,1030],{},"Alert if score drops below 70",[37,1032,1033],{},"Alert if new bearish drivers emerge",[37,1035,1036],{},"Alert on major news",[57,1038,1040],{"id":1039},"track-performance","Track Performance",[18,1042,1043],{},"After 30 days (the pattern's timeframe):",[76,1045,1046,1049,1052],{},[37,1047,1048],{},"Did the stock move as predicted?",[37,1050,1051],{},"Did the pattern play out?",[37,1053,1054],{},"What was the actual return?",[57,1056,1058],{"id":1057},"build-pattern-recognition","Build Pattern Recognition",[18,1060,1061],{},"Over time, you'll notice:",[76,1063,1064,1067,1070],{},[37,1065,1066],{},"Which strategies work best for you",[37,1068,1069],{},"Which sectors you understand better",[37,1071,1072],{},"Your optimal conviction thresholds",[18,1074,1075,1078],{},[21,1076,1077],{},"The goal:"," Get better at pattern recognition through repetition.",[26,1080,1082],{"id":1081},"common-mistakes-to-avoid","Common Mistakes to Avoid",[57,1084,1086],{"id":1085},"mistake-1-ignoring-confidence","Mistake #1: Ignoring Confidence",[18,1088,1089,1092],{},[21,1090,1091],{},"The error:"," Seeing a score of 85 and jumping in without checking confidence.",[18,1094,1095,1098],{},[21,1096,1097],{},"Why it's wrong:"," Score 85 with confidence 30 means weak evidence. It's a trap.",[18,1100,1101,1104],{},[21,1102,1103],{},"Fix:"," Always check BOTH score and confidence. 70/70 beats 85/30.",[57,1106,1108],{"id":1107},"mistake-2-not-reading-the-drivers","Mistake #2: Not Reading the Drivers",[18,1110,1111,1113],{},[21,1112,1091],{}," Just looking at the overall score and trading immediately.",[18,1115,1116,1118],{},[21,1117,1097],{}," You don't know WHY the score is high. One weak driver vs five strong drivers feels the same in the number.",[18,1120,1121,1123],{},[21,1122,1103],{}," Always read the top 3 drivers minimum. Understand what you're trading.",[57,1125,1127],{"id":1126},"mistake-3-trading-what-you-dont-understand","Mistake #3: Trading What You Don't Understand",[18,1129,1130,1132],{},[21,1131,1091],{}," NVDA shows great stats, but you don't know anything about semiconductors.",[18,1134,1135,1137],{},[21,1136,1097],{}," You can't evaluate if the pattern makes sense. You're just blindly following numbers.",[18,1139,1140,1142],{},[21,1141,1103],{}," Stick to sectors/companies you understand. If you don't know the business, skip it.",[57,1144,1146],{"id":1145},"mistake-4-ignoring-time-horizons","Mistake #4: Ignoring Time Horizons",[18,1148,1149,1151],{},[21,1150,1091],{}," Seeing a 30-day pattern and day-trading it.",[18,1153,1154,1156],{},[21,1155,1097],{}," The statistical evidence is for 30-day holds, not intraday moves.",[18,1158,1159,1161],{},[21,1160,1103],{}," Match your holding period to the pattern's timeframe. 30-day patterns → 30-day holds.",[57,1163,1165],{"id":1164},"mistake-5-forgetting-risk-management","Mistake #5: Forgetting Risk Management",[18,1167,1168,1170],{},[21,1169,1091],{}," Going all-in on a high-conviction setup.",[18,1172,1173,1175],{},[21,1174,1097],{}," Even 90% success rates mean 10% failures. One bad trade can wipe you out if oversized.",[18,1177,1178,1180],{},[21,1179,1103],{}," Never risk more than 2-5% on a single trade, no matter how good it looks.",[26,1182,1184],{"id":1183},"practice-exercise","Practice Exercise",[18,1186,1187],{},"Pick 3 more opportunities from the dashboard and run through this analysis:",[34,1189,1190,1193,1196,1199,1202,1205],{},[37,1191,1192],{},"Read header → Check score, confidence, direction",[37,1194,1195],{},"Analyze strategies → Do drivers align or conflict?",[37,1197,1198],{},"Examine statistics → r-value, sample size, p-value",[37,1200,1201],{},"Validate logic → Does the pattern make sense?",[37,1203,1204],{},"Cross-reference → Check charts and news",[37,1206,1207],{},"Make decision → High/moderate/low conviction?",[18,1209,1210],{},"After analyzing 5-10 opportunities, this process becomes second nature.",[26,1212,1214],{"id":1213},"next-steps","Next Steps",[18,1216,1217],{},"You now know how to analyze an opportunity systematically. Time to go deeper:",[18,1219,1220,1223,1224,1229],{},[21,1221,1222],{},"Understand the metrics:"," ",[1225,1226,1228],"a",{"href":1227},"/docs/analytics/reading-opportunity-scores","Reading Opportunity Scores"," - Learn what scores really mean and how they're calculated",[18,1231,1232,1223,1235,1239],{},[21,1233,1234],{},"Understand the drivers:",[1225,1236,1238],{"href":1237},"/docs/analytics/understanding-drivers","Understanding Drivers"," - Deep dive on what creates these patterns and how to evaluate them",[18,1241,1242,1223,1245,1249],{},[21,1243,1244],{},"Set up tracking:",[1225,1246,1248],{"href":1247},"/docs/getting-started/setting-up-alerts","Setting Up Alerts"," - Never miss opportunities that match your criteria",[1251,1252,1253],"style",{},"html .light .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-light);background: var(--shiki-light-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-light-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-light-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-light-text-decoration);}html.light .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-light);background: var(--shiki-light-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-light-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-light-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-light-text-decoration);}html .default .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}html .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-default);background: var(--shiki-default-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-default-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-default-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-default-text-decoration);}html .dark .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-dark);background: var(--shiki-dark-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-dark-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-dark-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-dark-text-decoration);}html.dark .shiki span {color: var(--shiki-dark);background: var(--shiki-dark-bg);font-style: var(--shiki-dark-font-style);font-weight: var(--shiki-dark-font-weight);text-decoration: var(--shiki-dark-text-decoration);}",{"title":278,"searchDepth":752,"depth":752,"links":1255},[1256,1257,1262,1267,1274,1279,1283,1288,1293,1298,1305,1306],{"id":28,"depth":752,"text":29},{"id":54,"depth":752,"text":55,"children":1258},[1259,1260,1261],{"id":59,"depth":758,"text":60},{"id":70,"depth":758,"text":71},{"id":104,"depth":758,"text":105},{"id":139,"depth":752,"text":140,"children":1263},[1264,1265,1266],{"id":146,"depth":758,"text":147},{"id":190,"depth":758,"text":191},{"id":224,"depth":758,"text":225},{"id":251,"depth":752,"text":252,"children":1268},[1269,1270,1271,1272,1273],{"id":262,"depth":758,"text":263},{"id":306,"depth":758,"text":307},{"id":340,"depth":758,"text":341},{"id":374,"depth":758,"text":375},{"id":398,"depth":758,"text":399},{"id":419,"depth":752,"text":420,"children":1275},[1276,1277,1278],{"id":429,"depth":758,"text":430},{"id":466,"depth":758,"text":467},{"id":509,"depth":758,"text":510},{"id":536,"depth":752,"text":537,"children":1280},[1281,1282],{"id":543,"depth":758,"text":544},{"id":575,"depth":758,"text":576},{"id":613,"depth":752,"text":614,"children":1284},[1285,1286,1287],{"id":620,"depth":758,"text":621},{"id":658,"depth":758,"text":659},{"id":675,"depth":758,"text":676},{"id":703,"depth":752,"text":704,"children":1289},[1290,1291,1292],{"id":730,"depth":758,"text":731},{"id":878,"depth":758,"text":879},{"id":949,"depth":758,"text":950},{"id":1010,"depth":752,"text":1011,"children":1294},[1295,1296,1297],{"id":1017,"depth":758,"text":1018},{"id":1039,"depth":758,"text":1040},{"id":1057,"depth":758,"text":1058},{"id":1081,"depth":752,"text":1082,"children":1299},[1300,1301,1302,1303,1304],{"id":1085,"depth":758,"text":1086},{"id":1107,"depth":758,"text":1108},{"id":1126,"depth":758,"text":1127},{"id":1145,"depth":758,"text":1146},{"id":1164,"depth":758,"text":1165},{"id":1183,"depth":752,"text":1184},{"id":1213,"depth":752,"text":1214},"getting-started","Step-by-step walkthrough of evaluating a trading opportunity from start to finish","md","beginner",{},"analytics/reading-opportunity-scores","/docs/getting-started/your-first-opportunity",[1315,1312,1316],"getting-started/understanding-the-dashboard","analytics/understanding-drivers",{"title":5,"description":1308},"docs/getting-started/your-first-opportunity",[1307,1320,1321,1322],"tutorial","analysis","walkthrough","Xi0W74afBmDye6yxkoItRo9rfozzEOd6sjygqMunlds",1785812715066]